2015 prostate cancer incidence rates

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    AnonymousKaren Pawlish

    Hi. In preliminary 2015 New Jersey data, we see that prostate cancer incidence rates (age-adjusted) in 2015 are up a little compared to 2014 (7.3% increase in rates). This is after a large decrease in 2012 (by 19% compared to 2011 rates), and smaller decreases in 2013 and 2014. I know that prostate cancer rates dropped in 2012 in other states as well, and this may have been due in part to changes in the screening recommendations. I was surprised to see an increase in 2015 because prostate is one of the cancers that tends to be reported late compared to some of the other cancers, and the 2015 data are preliminary.
    Has anyone at other state registries noticed an increase in prostate cancer incidence rates in 2015? Thanks.

    David O’Brien

    In Alaska we are not complete enough yet to make this determination for 2015. However, on a somewhat related note, I did make an interesting observation at the request of our Comp Cancer program manager a few weeks ago to look at early and late stage prostate cancer incidence. Late stage incidence has pretty much stayed constant over the last 15 years or so, at about 20 cases per 100,000 males. However, early stage incidence was steady at about 150 until 2008 when it started dropping starting in 2009 each year and was at 94 in 2014. This suggested to her that the falling rate is indicative of the reduced prevalence of prostate screening nationwide and that this screening has only been catching early stage prostate cancer. On the mortality side, the prostate cancer rates have fallen pretty linearly since 1998 except for 2013 and 2014, where the slope has changed dramatically and became less steep, suggesting a slowing of the rate of decrease over time. While these are only 2 data points, this may be a reflection of fewer prostate cases being diagnosed due to screening.

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